Nvidia’s stock has gained attention this week following an agreement with the US government to share 15% of its China-generated revenue in exchange for export licenses. Analyst Harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler sees this deal as a key factor that could shift demand patterns, particularly in the October quarter.
Kumar cites Nvidia’s recent performance and expectations, including $7.1 billion in revenue from China in the April quarter. He believes the licensing process and supply channel reopening could lead to increased customer license approvals, normalizing demand growth at 12-15% per quarter.
This outlook supports Nvidia’s imminent July quarter earnings readout on August 27, with Kumar forecasting revenue of around $45.1 billion. Given the company’s track record of slightly exceeding forecasts, Kumar sees a realistic chance for modest upside.
The broader supply-demand picture also reinforces this optimism. The US HPC market is outpacing production capacity, driven by hyperscale spending that is accelerating. As ongoing construction projects conclude, more budget will shift toward compute resources, further fueling demand.
Kumar lifts his price target from $180 to $225, signaling a potential 23% upside over the next year. His rating remains an Overweight (i.e., Buy). With a Strong Buy consensus rating and average price target of $189.23, modest 12-month returns are possible.
Source: https://www.tipranks.com/news/a-new-high-is-likely-says-top-analyst-about-nvidia-stock