The US solar market is bracing for potential losses of up to 60GW in planned capacity due to strict new rules regarding the “start of construction” for projects, according to market analyst Clean Energy Associates (CEA). The new budget rules require solar projects to begin construction by July 2026 or place them in service by December 2027 to retain tax credits.
However, the exact definition of “start of construction” may change due to a recent executive order from President Trump. The order instructs the Treasury to introduce tighter rules for projects looking to secure tax credits, which could significantly impact US solar installations.
CEA’s report warns that these new rules could limit US installations to pre-July 2025 safe harbour volumes, potentially cutting installations to 2030 by up to 60GW. Industry experts say this could lead to a flurry of activity in the next year as developers scramble to start significant construction before July 2026 or place projects in service by December 2027.
Additionally, stricter tariffs and potential “punitive” measures on polysilicon imports could push up solar module prices across the board. Analysts predict that US module and cell manufacturers will struggle to navigate new Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions, further increasing prices for US buyers.
Source: https://www.pv-tech.org/us-solar-market-60gw-decline-donald-trump-executive-order