A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, killing thousands and causing widespread damage along the Sagaing Fault. A new study from Caltech suggests that strike-slip faults like the Sagaing and San Andreas may be capable of earthquakes significantly different from past known events and potentially much larger.
Researchers used satellite imaging to analyze the Sagaing Fault’s motion and improve models of how such faults behave in the future. The study found that the 2025 earthquake revealed complex behavior on the fault, including clustering and variable segmentation. This discovery sheds light on possible future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.
The team’s analysis showed that the fault slipped along a total of over 500 kilometers, indicating that it made up for a deficit of slip and moved more than initially anticipated. The study also highlights the limitations of current models used for seismic hazard assessment, which rely on earthquake statistics and are time-independent.
“The study shows that future earthquakes might not simply repeat past known earthquakes,” said Jean-Philippe Avouac, co-author of the paper. “Physics-based models provide an alternative approach with the advantage that they could be tuned to observations and used for time-dependent forecasts.”
The research has implications for understanding earthquake cycles on faults like the Sagaing and San Andreas. The study’s findings will contribute to improving seismic hazard assessments and potentially informing strategies for mitigating earthquake risks.
Source: https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/imaging-and-modeling-of-myanmar-quake-gives-clues-about-behavior-of-the-san-andreas