NASA’s ambitious return to the Moon is being shaped by a new study that’s redefining how scientists assess seismic risks on the lunar surface. The research, published in Science Advances, offers a novel method for estimating moonquake frequency and strength using data from both Apollo missions and the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.
The study relies on a unique combination of Apollo 17 surface samples and LRO imagery to analyze surface disturbances along known lunar faults, such as the Lee-Lincoln fault. By analyzing chemical exposure of boulders to cosmic radiation, scientists determined when rocks were likely shaken loose – events attributed to moonquakes.
Researchers estimate that moonquakes with a magnitude of around 3.0 occur along the Lee-Lincoln fault about once every 5.6 million years. The extended shaking caused by these quakes could jeopardize habitats, disrupt operations, or destabilize critical surface equipment.
According to Thomas Watters, senior scientist emeritus at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum, “The hazard probability goes way up depending on how close your infrastructure is to an active fault.” Identifying higher-risk zones will be key to designing sustainable outposts, with mission planners now able to map relatively stable regions.
The study challenges previous assumptions by showing that seismic activity is not uniform and may be more persistent than once thought. NASA is planning to expand its lunar seismic monitoring capabilities, including the deployment of two sensitive seismometers on the far side of the Moon and a new seismic payload for Artemis III.
These efforts aim to collect real-time data on seismic activity in the Moon’s south polar region, supporting both crewed and robotic missions. With this new data, scientists will be better equipped to model tectonic behavior, plan infrastructure layout, and eventually engineer buildings capable of withstanding prolonged moonquakes.
Source: https://dailygalaxy.com/2025/08/apollo-rocks-lro-scans-predict-moonquakes