As parents prepare for the new school year, they’re facing uncertainty about how tariffs will affect back-to-school shopping prices. The National Retail Federation surveyed 12% more parents starting their shopping earlier this year due to tariff concerns.
The NRF estimates that $39.4 billion will be spent on back-to-school supplies, with families budgeting an average of $874.68 per child for the year. However, it’s unclear how much Trump’s new tariffs will increase prices, but companies may pass on costs to customers.
Target has taken a proactive approach by maintaining its 2024 prices for key supplies, aiming to keep customers loyal during the shopping season. Economists warn that retailers will eventually have to absorb tariff costs.
A recent Goldman Sachs analysis found that consumers paid 36% of tariff costs three months after a levy was set and 67% four months later. This increase is starting to show up in inflation data, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating that tariffs are “starting to show up in consumer prices” and expecting more price increases.
Despite Trump’s claims that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to America or help negotiate better trade deals, economists recommend comparing prices between stores to avoid price variation.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/24/trump-tariffs-school-supplies-prices