The idea that technological advancements will lead to widespread unemployment and a dole-based society is not supported by historical data or current trends. Instead, emerging job categories in home-health and personal-care aides, nursing, hospital administration, dog walking, and politics are expected to drive the service sector’s growth.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 10 jobs predicted to have the most new openings between 2024 and 2034 include home-health and personal-care aides, software developers, stockers and order fillers, fast-food and counter workers, cooks, restaurant, registered nurses, general and operations managers, medical and health services managers, financial managers, and nurse practitioners.
A significant portion of these jobs will be created in the health-care sector, driven by income elasticity of demand for health care. This phenomenon suggests that as individual income increases, demand for health services also rises faster than income does.
However, the current system is not without inefficiencies. Inefficient use of healthcare dollars and artificial price controls have led to widespread waste and mismanagement.
The future mix of service jobs will be shaped by factors like concentrated wealth, immigration, unionization, and policy decisions. A more egalitarian society with accessible education and healthcare might see retail workers displaced by automation finding labor-intensive jobs in education and healthcare.
In contrast, a more oligarchic society could lead to the concentration of service sector employment among the wealthy minority as personal servants, maids, gardeners, caterers, luxury restaurant workers, and dog walkers. Ultimately, the structure of employment in the growing nonautomatable, nontradable service sector will be determined by politics, not technology.
In conclusion, while technological advancements may disrupt some industries, they are unlikely to lead to widespread unemployment or a dole-based society. Instead, emerging job categories in home-health and personal-care aides, nursing, hospital administration, dog walking, and politics are expected to drive growth in the service sector, with income elasticity of demand for health care being a key driver.
Source: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/real-jobs-future-michael-lind