Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, says the US is at a crossroads between unity and conflict. He warns that rising debt and deepening divisions could lead to a financial crisis. The nation’s 125% debt-to-GDP ratio risks triggering a “debt bomb” if investors lose confidence, forcing higher borrowing costs or painful spending cuts.
Dalio believes friction in the US is escalating, with irreconcilable differences between citizens. He notes that there are two possible outcomes: either the country comes together and rises above its differences, or conflicting sides exert as much pain on each other as they can.
The Bridgewater founder says national debt is a major concern, with America’s need to sell debt outweighing the market’s appetite to buy it. This could lead to higher interest rates or significant spending cuts, leaving the US in a tough spot.
Dalio emphasizes that understanding the cause and effect of these issues is crucial to mitigating their impact. He notes that history can provide valuable insights into the mechanics of complex problems.
As the country navigates its financial and social challenges, Dalio’s warning serves as a reminder of the importance of unity and cooperation in addressing pressing issues.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/10/10/ray-dalio-us-civil-war-tests-of-power