Estimating AI productivity gains is crucial for understanding its impact on labor productivity. Using a privacy-preserving analysis method, researchers analyzed 100,000 real conversations from Claude.ai and estimated how long tasks would take with and without AI assistance. The results suggest that current-generation AI models could increase US labor productivity growth by 1.8% annually over the next decade, doubling the recent rate of labor productivity growth.
The study found that AI reduces task completion time by 80%, with significant variations in time savings across occupations. Tasks requiring complex knowledge work, such as legal and management tasks, see large speedups (up to 90%), while others, like food preparation and transportation tasks, see smaller gains (around 20-50%). The estimated productivity gain is highly concentrated among tech, education, and professional services sectors.
However, the study also highlights several limitations, including imperfect AI predictions, task taxonomy limitations, structural assumptions, restructuring of organizations, and the role of innovation. These limitations emphasize the need for further research on this topic to better understand AI’s impact on labor productivity.
Source: https://www.anthropic.com/research/estimating-productivity-gains