Researchers say a quantum computer with just 26,000 qubits can crack encryption standards like Bitcoin’s ECC-256 in about 10 days, raising concerns about post-quantum security. This is significantly fewer than earlier estimates of hundreds of thousands of qubits.
A new study by Caltech and Oratomic suggests that quantum computers could break encryption used to secure Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets with as few as 10,000 physical qubits. The researchers use Google’s quantum circuits as a baseline and estimate that a neutral-atom quantum computer with around 26,000 qubits could crack ECC-256 in about 10 days.
Currently, RSA-2048, which is used by financial institutions to secure web2 platforms, would require closer to 102,000 qubits and three months. However, the researchers note that elliptic curve cryptography is more exposed because it achieves comparable security with smaller keys, making it easier work for a quantum machine.
The findings highlight the need for the crypto industry to migrate to quantum-resistant systems before the cost of quantum attacks falls further. With an estimated 6.9 million BTC tied to early wallets and reused addresses, the risk to funds is significant. The direction is becoming harder to ignore, with researchers asking whether the industry can migrate to new platforms before they become vulnerable at an affordable cost.
The study has raised concerns about post-quantum security, and experts are urging the crypto industry to act quickly to develop and implement quantum-resistant systems.
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/31/quantum-computers-could-break-crypto-wallet-encryption-with-just-10-000-qubits-researchers-say