Vladimir Putin’s sudden change in narrative regarding Syria’s collapse has exposed his true nature. After nine years of demonizing anti-Assad forces as “terrorists,” Moscow is now describing them as “armed opposition groups.” This shift is a desperate attempt to negotiate a deal with Syria’s new rulers that will allow him to retain control over naval and air bases vital for Russian interests.
Russia’s Syrian intervention was its first major military operation beyond the former USSR since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Putin invested tens of billions of dollars in the campaign, which initially appeared to be paying off handsomely. However, his underwhelming response to Syria’s fall serves as a reminder that Western fears of Russian escalation are wildly exaggerated.
Putin has skillfully exploited concerns about Russian escalation in Ukraine by using nuclear threats and warnings of red lines. This excessive caution has infuriated many in Kyiv, who have repeatedly exposed Russia’s threats as empty. In contrast, Putin has chosen to downplay the Ukrainian offensive, referring to it as a mere “provocation.”
Putin’s readiness to surrender his propaganda position in Syria and quietly accept new military realities is significant for Ukraine. It suggests that he will retreat again if confronted with military defeat, while ordering his media machine to save his blushes. This reality should help the West overcome its crippling fear of Russian escalation.
The fall of Syria has revealed a humble reality behind Putin’s Great Power posturing. The Russian military is now overextended by the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and Putin is in a weaker position than he would like us to believe.
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-quiet-syrian-surrender-reveals-the-weakness-behind-his-intimidation-tactics