Fantasy managers are gearing up for the upcoming draft season, focusing on talent valuation to make informed decisions. Advanced metrics can provide valuable assistance in identifying players whose ADP values offer upside plays or risky propositions.
To help fantasy managers with this effort, we reviewed numerous advanced metrics to identify players who fit these criteria. In this article, we’ll explore the top 5 undervalued players and the top 5 overvalued ADPs, providing insights into their potential value and draft strategy.
Undervalued Players:
1. Jameson Williams (WR, Detroit Lions) – Aggregate ADP: 58; Round Value: 3-4
Williams’ high yards per target and favorable upcoming schedule make him an attractive option. With the Lions’ new offense coordinator aiming to send more passes in his direction, Williams is poised for a significant workload.
2. Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens) – Aggregate ADP: 74; Round Value: 4-5
Andrews’ red zone production and vertical PPR PPG make him an undervalued option. Despite a slow start last season, he’s been on a roll since returning from injury and has a favorable pass coverage schedule.
3. Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) – Aggregate ADP: 116; Round Value: 6
Williams’ rushing yards and fireworks points metrics indicate his potential for fantasy upside. With the Bears investing in their offensive line and adding impact rookies, Williams is likely to see an increase in passing opportunities.
4. Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay Packers) – Aggregate ADP: 132; Round Value: 6
Love’s vertical PPR PPG and rushing PPG make him a compelling option. His increased running ability and OC Adam Stenavich’s intention to utilize his skills more often bode well for fantasy value.
5. Buffalo D/ST (Buffalo Bills) – Aggregate ADP: 134; Round Value: 10-11
The Bills’ pass rush and pass-blocking matchup points make them a strong option. With a favorable schedule and added defensive talent, this D/ST is likely to be a go-to starter in many weeks.
Overvalued Players:
1. Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins) – Aggregate ADP: 29; Round Value: 4
Hill’s Tua Tagovailoa vertical pass numbers might be overestimated due to the coach’s aggressive play calling and injury concerns. His value is likely to drop if Tagovailoa gets hurt or if McDaniel scales back long passes.
2. Xavier Worthy (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) – Aggregate ADP: 54; Round Value: 7
Worthy’s vertical and stretch vertical PPR PPG are impressive, but his short pass limitations and the Chiefs’ reliance on other receivers might limit his potential. Taking him in Rounds 4-5 is probably a reach.
3. Philadelphia D/ST (Philadelphia Eagles) – Aggregate ADP: 114; Round Value: 12
While their schedule appears challenging, the Eagles’ D/ST rotation and matchup quality issues make them less appealing than expected.
4. Jake Ferguson (TE, Dallas Cowboys) – Aggregate ADP: 138; Round Value: 14-15
Ferguson’s red zone targets and schedule strength are overestimated due to his limited production and the Cowboys’ offense being more run-heavy under Brian Schottenheimer.
5. Cam Ward (QB, Tennessee Titans) – Aggregate ADP: 173; Round Value: Do not draft
Ward’s low fireworks points total makes him an unappealing option due to the team’s low scoring potential and his rookie status on a talent-challenged roster.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6562262/2025/08/19/fantasy-football-2025-adp-overvalued-undervalued-players