The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) and Buffalo Bills (10-2) have secured spots in the postseason, but the battle for the top spot in the AFC remains intense. The Bills are closing in on the defending Super Bowl champions, with an 18% chance of winning out to clinch the No. 1 seed. Kansas City’s win probability is at its lowest during Weeks 17 and 18, where they face a 50.7% and 49.3% chance of victory, respectively.
A loss in one of their final two games would significantly impact the Chiefs’ chances. Meanwhile, Buffalo has an 23% likelihood of securing the top seed with only one loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 15. If both teams finish the season with the same record, Buffalo’s head-to-head advantage over Kansas City will secure the No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs are favored in all but their last two games, where they face 50-50 odds against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively.
Source: https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2024/12/03/what-is-most-likely-way-chiefs-clinch-1-seed