Historian Allan Lichtman has admitted to being wrong in his prediction of Vice President Kamala Harris’ win in the 2024 presidential election. However, he stands by his “13 Keys to the White House” system, which correctly predicted nine out of 10 previous elections.
Lichtman cited two main reasons for his incorrect prediction: disdain for the Biden-Harris administration and Harris’ late campaign start after Biden dropped out on July 21. Despite this, Lichtman emphasized that his system’s long-term accuracy remains intact.
He also criticized Nate Silver’s polling-based prediction model, suggesting it relies heavily on chance. Lichtman has a high success rate with his “13 Keys” system, which he will not alter despite his recent mistake.
Lichtman attributed the inaccurate prediction to factors such as the spread of disinformation and the challenges posed by Harris’ delayed campaign start. He also noted that his predictions often go against most pundits and are considered more efficient than other models.
The historian acknowledged that the 2024 election was unusual, with a significant disparity between the Democrats’ pre-election vote totals and their actual performance. Despite this, Lichtman remains committed to using his system to make future predictions.
Source: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/07/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-prediction-wrong/76121154007