A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents that affects weather worldwide could collapse as early as the late 2030s, according to a new study. This would have devastating consequences for the planet’s climate.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been weakening due to human-induced climate change, with warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted salt levels. The new research uses advanced models to estimate when AMOC might collapse, suggesting it could happen between 2037 and 2064, with a higher likelihood of occurring by 2050.
The consequences of an AMOC collapse would be catastrophic. It would disrupt global weather patterns, leading to more heatwaves, droughts, and flooding. The climate would become even more distorted, causing the Arctic ice to expand southward, and temperatures in Europe and North America to plunge.
Parts of the world would change beyond recognition. In the decades following a collapse, the Amazon rainforest would experience a complete reversal of its seasons. The study’s lead author warns that this is a “really big danger” that must be avoided.
Scientists have made significant progress in understanding AMOC’s weakening and are now focusing on when it might reach its tipping point. While the models used to predict AMOC’s collapse have improved, they still have limitations, including not taking into account melting Greenland ice, which disrupts one of the circulation’s driving forces: salt levels.
As a result, predictions may underestimate how soon or fast an AMOC collapse would occur.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html