The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has brought back memories of the Arab Spring, a wave of protests that swept across the region nearly 14 years ago. The sudden collapse of history felt vivid, with scenes of crowds gathering in squares, despots’ riches exposed, and their fortresses stormed. This moment unlocks a sense of possibility, but also poses significant challenges.
Unlike previous revolutions in the region, which often unraveled or resulted in the retrenchment of dictatorial regimes, Syria’s long revolution has finally reached its end. The price was high, but the spoils are dear. However, the lack of optimism is tempered by wariness of what comes next. This is a product of experiences in other countries where revolutions were met with mixed outcomes.
In Yemen and Sudan, for example, ancien regimes proved too entrenched to be uprooted by removing their leaders. In others, such as Yemen, power vacuums and armed groups led to civil war. The region has become a proxy playground, with external powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia backing rival factions. Iran also backed its own partners in the Houthis.
The Syrian revolution became a theatre for regional ambitions, with Russia supporting Assad’s regime and Turkey maintaining a presence to prevent Kurdish autonomy. Hours after Assad’s fall, foreign armies were already striking targets in Syria. The new government faces challenges not only of administering a fractured country but also managing competing external interests.
Despite the complexities, the logic of analysis must be balanced with concrete facts. The release of prisoners, popular celebration, and potential return of millions of refugees are significant developments. Concerns about imperialist US agendas and extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham must be addressed.
Ultimately, there is no monopoly on establishing peace and stability in Syria. Neither the West nor Gulf powers have a clear solution, despite their own interests. Arab governments often suppress protests to maintain power.
The Syrian people themselves are crucial to understanding what comes next. Yasser Munif, a Syrian scholar, emphasizes the importance of grassroots narratives, which have been silenced and marginalized. The role of religion in opposition doesn’t necessarily imply totalitarian ideology.
In Syria’s complex landscape, history and external influence often guide decision-making. However, a broadly reliable indicator is the people themselves. Syrians’ joy and relief should not be suffocated by concerns about their future. Instead, we owe them our trust, support, and some naivety as they shape their unique revolution and show the way for others who have gone astray.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/16/wrong-syria-people-optimism-assad