The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur as early as August, according to a recent study. The Arctic Ocean has been losing approximately 80,000 square kilometers of ice every year since 1979, and its extent has reached an all-time low in 2023.
Researchers used advanced climate models to simulate the evolution of the Arctic ice floe starting from the situation of 2023, when its extension marked one of its historical minimums. The study found that a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could minimize the number of subsequent ice-free days.
However, even with drastic reductions, the first ice-free day is still inevitable. Scientists use the term “ice-free” to refer to the moment when the Arctic’s ice extent drops below 1 million square kilometers. This threshold would result in most of the Arctic Ocean being free of sea ice, making it easily navigable for ships.
The reduction in Arctic albedo (reflectivity) due to a shrinking ice sheet will contribute to global warming, accelerating its effects. Additionally, the increased amount of liquid water in the Arctic Ocean will lead to regional warming and changes in global atmospheric circulation patterns.
While the exact date of the first ice-free day is uncertain, the study suggests that it may occur within the next few years. The researchers emphasize that even low-probability events can happen in reality, highlighting the need for continued monitoring and adaptation to climate change.
Source: https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-12-03/first-ice-free-day-in-the-arctic-ocean-could-come-before-2030.html