A new study warns that the Arctic Ocean could experience its first ice-free day as soon as this decade, with climate models predicting a wide range of possibilities for when this will occur. The research, published in Nature Communications, used 11 different climate models to run simulations of climate change from 2023 to 2100.
According to the study, nine out of 11 simulations predicted that the first ice-free day would arrive within three to six years, with the majority projecting a timeframe of 7-20 years. This scenario is unlikely but poses a significant risk if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.
The researchers found that an unusually warm fall, winter, and spring can trigger a rapid transition to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. If this pattern holds for three consecutive years, the first ice-free day would occur by September of a given year.
However, climate scientist Alexandra Jahn notes that an ice-free Arctic won’t dramatically change things but will show that human activities have fundamentally altered the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean.
The study’s findings are concerning, as the world is on track to exceed 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels in 2024, which could lead to an earlier-than-expected ice-free Arctic. The researchers emphasize that sticking to the Paris Agreement guidelines can delay this event, but current trends suggest otherwise.
The research highlights the importance of addressing climate change and its impact on the Arctic Ocean, a key indicator of global warming.
Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/first-ice-free-day-in-arctic-ocean-could-arrive-this-decade-study-finds