A team of international researchers has used computer models to predict that the first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice could occur as early as 2027. This milestone would significantly impact the ecosystem and Earth’s climate by changing weather patterns.
According to the study published in Nature Communications, the Arctic has seen a rapid decline in sea ice over the past few decades. In September, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that this year’s Arctic sea ice minimum was one of the lowest on record since 1978.
Researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder and the University of Gothenburg in Sweden used computer models to predict when the first ice-free day could occur in the northernmost ocean. The team found that most models predicted the first ice-free day would happen within nine to 20 years after 2023, regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions.
The study’s findings suggest that an extreme series of weather events could melt two million square kilometers or more of sea ice in a short period, leading to an ice-free Arctic. However, the researchers also found that a drastic cut in emissions could delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic and reduce the time the ocean stays ice-free.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically,” said Alexandra Jahn, associate professor at CU Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. “But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean.”
The study highlights the urgent need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impact on the Arctic ecosystem and global climate.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2024-12-countdown-ice-free-arctic-timelines.html