Syrian President Bashar Assad faces a daunting challenge as insurgents launch a surprise attack that has captured key cities across the country, including Aleppo and parts of Damascus. The last time Assad was in serious trouble was 10 years ago, when his forces lost control over parts of Aleppo and opposition forces were closing in on the capital.
However, this latest crisis is different from the previous one. Russia’s war in Ukraine has distracted them, while Hezbollah’s weakened state due to its conflict with Israel has reduced its ability to support Assad’s regime. Syrian troops are exhausted, hollowed out by 13 years of war and economic crises, making it difficult for them to resist the insurgency.
Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments has created an opportunity for Assad’s opponents to pounce. The international community had hoped that the worst was over, but the sudden offensive has reignited the war and sent shockwaves across the region.
As Assad appears to be largely on his own, questions are being raised about his 24-year rule coming to an end. The U.N. envoy has called for an “orderly political transition,” while Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, cannot forecast what will happen next.
The rebels’ surprise attack has exposed the complex dynamics of Syria and can transform superficial calm into major conflict. With almost all Syrians facing extreme financial hardship, state institutions and salaries have withered, making it difficult for Assad’s regime to function effectively.
The insurgents are trying to capitalize on this weakness by issuing “protection cards” to government soldiers and security agencies, offering them amnesty and assurances that they won’t be hunted down. Hundreds of defectors have already applied for these cards, indicating the growing desperation within Assad’s regime.
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: Assad’s rule is on shaky ground, and the international community is watching with bated breath to see what happens next.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/syria-civil-war-assad-insurgents-55921ce70395892d2955eb1654e5a8c1