Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 and is about 150 feet wide. Discovered in December, it currently rates a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, placing it in the yellow zone that requires public and astronomical attention. The scale categorizes asteroids based on their potential to cause localized destruction and impact risk. A score of 3 indicates a close encounter with a significant chance of collision.
Astronomer Richard Binzel, who invented the Torino Scale at MIT, noted that asteroid 2024 YR4 is moving into a position where observation will be difficult for about three years. The asteroid is currently too faint to see (magnitude 23) and will continue dimming as it approaches Earth in 2032.
While the first potential impact date is December 22, 2032, future observations could change this timeline or location. If an impact were to occur, it would likely happen far from populated areas due to preparedness measures like NASA’s DART mission, which successfully hit an asteroid’s moon in 2022.
The chances of collision are low, but the ongoing monitoring highlights our reliance on early warnings and space safety technologies.
Source: https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032