Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 40 to 100 meters wide, is set to pass very close to Earth in December 2032, sparking concerns about potential impact. The European Space Agency estimates a 2 percent chance of collision, with the risk figure expected to be updated as scientists learn more about the asteroid’s path.
The destructive potential of 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, speed, and mass, which can only be estimated due to the asteroid’s vast distance from Earth. If it were to strike, an airburst equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT could occur, affecting a 50-kilometer radius around the impact site.
A “risk corridor” has been identified by experts, spanning northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador would be at risk if the asteroid hits Earth.
The Torino scale measures the threat posed by asteroids and comets, with higher scores indicating greater risk of impact. 2024 YR4 is currently ranked at level 3, but international agencies are confident that the risk will decrease to zero as the asteroid’s trajectory becomes clearer.
This is not the first time such an alert has been raised; asteroid Apophis was discovered in 2004 and initially had a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth. However, after better observations, scientists adjusted their calculations to more realistic values.
In response to 2024 YR4, the UN has activated an emergency protocol for protection, focusing on continuous monitoring to understand the asteroid’s movements. Measures are also being developed to deflect asteroids using kinetic strikes, with NASA’s DART mission proving the effectiveness of this technique.
Source: https://www.wired.com/story/asteroid-2024-yr4