A potentially hazardous asteroid called 2024 YR4 is forecasted to hit the moon in seven years’ time at a 4.3% chance. This massive space rock could create a spectacular meteor shower if it strikes the lunar surface, posing a significant threat to Earth-orbiting satellites. The 200-foot-wide asteroid has been deemed large enough to wipe out a major city if it hits our planet head-on.
Researchers have conducted simulations that show up to 220 million pounds of material could be ejected from the moon’s surface upon impact. If the debris falls towards Earth, around 10% of it may be pulled in by our gravity over several days. The expected amount of debris is estimated to be roughly 1,000 times more likely to hit satellites than previously thought.
However, experts emphasize that the risks associated with this asteroid are relatively low, as most fragments will burn up in Earth’s atmosphere and create a spectacular meteor shower, rather than posing a threat to human life on the ground. On the other hand, space-based infrastructure such as satellites could be at risk due to the significant amount of debris ejected from the lunar surface.
The chances of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth are negligible at this point, but government agencies may make decisions to try and alter its course if the odds increase further in the coming years. NASA has previously demonstrated its ability to redirect dangerous asteroids back in 2022, which could potentially serve as a model for future asteroid deflection strategies.
If no action is taken, however, experts warn that waiting too long may lead to unforeseen risks due to changes in the asteroid’s trajectory. Furthermore, proposed cuts to NASA’s budget by the Trump administration could make it more challenging to track asteroids like 2024 YR4 in the future.
Source: https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-shower-earth-with-bullet-like-meteors-if-it-hits-the-moon-in-2032