The European Space Agency has significantly lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032, from a potential collision course earlier this week. According to recent observations, the probability of impact has decreased to just 0.16 percent.
Initially identified on December 27th, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), initial calculations suggested a possible collision course with Earth. However, new data gathered from ground-based telescopes and the James Webb Space Telescope’s infrared capabilities has improved our understanding of the asteroid’s size, composition, and threat level.
The estimated size of the asteroid ranges between 130 and 300 feet, releasing approximately 7.7 megatons of energy upon impact. While not powerful enough to wipe out humanity as in the case of the dinosaurs’ extinction event, it would still be capable of devastating a city with direct contact.
However, NASA notes that new data has also increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the moon to one percent. The European Space Agency’s CNEOS page will continue to update users on 2024 YR4’s latest impact probability, providing a reliable source for monitoring this potentially hazardous asteroid.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/news/617177/nasa-asteroid-2024-yr4-european-space-agency-risk-collision-impact