The asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is now considered a much lower threat to Earth than initially thought. The latest calculations have revised down the estimated chance of impact in 2032 from 3.1% to just 1.5%. According to Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office, this value is likely to fall even further.
The uncertainty surrounding YR4’s ‘impact corridor’ – the path it will take near Earth – is decreasing, with researchers hopeful that they can soon determine whether the asteroid’s orbit will bring Earth within range. If so, the risk of impact would increase.
The discovery of YR4 has given scientists a chance to test an international protocol for responding to asteroid hazards, established after the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013. As new telescopes come online, astronomers can expect to see more close calls, with Moissl warning that it’s “not if, but when” asteroids will pose a threat.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has been working tirelessly to calculate YR4’s speed and path. They aim to report an impact risk of below 1% before April, when the asteroid’s orbit will take it beyond the range of ground-based telescopes until 2028.
This rapid applied science is similar to that used by meteorologists and seismologists, who must coordinate to save lives. “You have to understand that you’re doing science to save the world,” says Vishnu Reddy, a planetary scientist at the University of Arizona and IAWN manager.
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00552-y