A recent analysis by the European Space Agency (ESA) has significantly reduced the impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4. The asteroid is now deemed to pose only a 0.001% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, down from a peak probability of 2.8% just a few days ago.
The ESA’s assessment was revised after new telescopic observations were made of the asteroid using advanced technology, such as the Flyeye telescopes and the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. These observations greatly reduced the impact probability to almost negligible levels.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40m to 90m wide, making it a potentially hazardous object that could cause severe damage to a local region if it were to hit Earth. However, thanks to advanced monitoring and tracking systems, scientists have been able to refine the asteroid’s orbit and assess its hazard level.
The impact probability of 2024 YR4 initially rose as more possible orbits led to an Earth impact on December 22, 2032. However, after new observations were made, the risk was significantly reduced, and the asteroid has now fallen from Level 3 to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
The successful assessment of 2024 YR4’s impact probability demonstrates the effectiveness of advanced monitoring systems in reducing the risk of asteroid impacts. Planned observations using the James Webb Space Telescope will further test the telescope’s ability to improve our estimate of asteroid size and better prepare for future hazards.
Source: https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_no_longer_poses_significant_impact_risk