NASA has significantly reduced the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, downgrading its probability from a notable chance in 2032 to just 0.004%. New observations have refined the asteroid’s trajectory, moving its possible impact location farther away from our planet.
While there is still a small chance (1.7%) that asteroid 2024 YR4 may collide with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, this hazard is no longer significant for Earth.
NASA will continue to monitor the asteroid using observatories and its James Webb Space Telescope in March. The experience gained from tracking 2024 YR4 has provided valuable insights into planetary defense science and notification processes.
The latest data on near-Earth asteroids that pose an impact risk can be found at NASA’s automated Sentry page.
Source: https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/24/latest-calculations-conclude-asteroid-2024-yr4-now-poses-no-significant-threat-to-earth-in-2032-and-beyond