Astronomers have significantly reduced the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. According to recent observations, the probability has dropped from a peak of 3.1% just two days ago to 0.28%, or about 1 in 360. This is down from its initial assessment and indicates that the asteroid’s trajectory is now clear.
The asteroid was initially spotted as having a higher threat level due to its size, which could potentially cover a football field, and its possible impact on Earth. However, after refining calculations and eliminating certain trajectories, astronomers have determined that the risk has decreased significantly.
The Torino impact scale measures the threat of an asteroid’s potential impact, with 3 being the highest. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at a low level of 1, indicating a negligible threat to the planet.
This recent update highlights the effectiveness of modern asteroid detection methods and serves as a reminder that advancements in this field can lead to more accurate predictions and warnings for potential threats from space.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2025/02/20/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hitting-earth-near-zero