A recent NASA calculation suggests that asteroid 2024 YR4, initially thought to be on a collision course with Earth, is now expected to collide with the moon instead. The asteroid, approximately 53-67 meters in diameter, has a 4.3% chance of striking the lunar surface seven years from now.
Discovered in December 2024 by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), YR4 was initially considered a potential threat to Earth due to its initial estimated size and proximity. However, further observations using the James Webb Space Telescope’s NIRCam infrared camera have refined its trajectory, now indicating a moon impact.
If YR4 does collide with the moon, it will land on its near side, providing scientists with a unique opportunity to observe an impact crater formation. The asteroid’s close pass and potential impact make it an ideal target for planetary defense research, building on NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission in 2022.
YR4 is part of the approximately 20,000 Apollo-type asteroids orbiting the sun at a similar distance to Earth. Initial observations suggested a possible Earth impact, prompting international warning networks to issue alerts. Further telescopic observations eventually ruled out an Earth-bound threat, but the asteroid’s trajectory now points towards a lunar collision.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2025/06/18/city-killer-asteroid-could-now-hit-the-moon—what-to-know