Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet long, has been attracting attention due to its small chance of crashing into Earth in less than eight years. Initially spotted late last year on a potential collision course with our planet in 2032, astronomers have increased the odds of impact from around 1% to 2.3%. However, experts at the Planetary Society believe that as more observations of its trajectory are made, the odds will fall to zero.
While this is the highest asteroid has had of impacting Earth in over two decades since the infamous Apophis was first discovered and later ruled out as a threat, astronomers remain unconcerned. Space agencies worldwide plan to monitor YR4 to better calculate its trajectory, which is likely to be harmless. In case of a potential threat, the agencies will implement planetary defense strategies.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 carries an uncommonly high risk of colliding with Earth, but it’s the only one currently with any chance of hitting our planet anytime soon among more than 37,000 known large space rocks. NASA and other space agencies are working on building a defense to protect humanity from asteroid threats.
Recent observations have increased the asteroid’s visibility from Earth until April, giving astronomers time to gather data. The James Webb Space Telescope will study YR4 in March, further reducing the impact probability. As more information is gathered, it’s possible that YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, similar to other objects like Apophis.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a rating of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the second-highest rating ever recorded after Apophis briefly hit a rating of 4. The risk was even higher during its 2029 flyby, but further observations allowed astronomers to rule out the possibility of impact.
The International Asteroid Warning Network has listed possible impact locations from sparsely populated areas to densely populated regions in the eastern Pacific Ocean and parts of Africa. With ongoing monitoring, NASA aims to build a defense against asteroid threats through its Double Asteroid Redirection Test and other initiatives.
Source: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/02/12/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-impact-earth-nasa/78456125007