A recently discovered near-Earth asteroid, 2024 YR4, has garnered attention due to its slim possibility of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. With a 1% chance of impact, it is the only asteroid among more than 37,000 already discovered to pose such a significant threat.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale rates asteroids from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (certain impact likely). 2024 YR4 has been rated as high as 3, making it the second-highest ever recorded. The asteroid’s diameter is estimated to be between 40-100 meters, which could cause significant damage if it were to collide with Earth.
Astronomers are working to refine the asteroid’s orbit and understand its potential danger. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that 2024 YR4 has an elongated shape and may be a stony asteroid. Measurements from space and ground-based telescopes will continue to track the asteroid, helping to predict its trajectory with greater accuracy.
While the possibility of impact is serious, experts emphasize that panic is not warranted. “Your danger is far higher to have a car crash,” said Heidi Hammel, Vice President for Science at the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy. The International Asteroid Warning Network and coordinated efforts between NASA and ESA are working together to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory.
As more observations are obtained, the uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4’s path will decrease, potentially increasing the probability of impact before it drops to zero. However, experts caution that this is usually a temporary increase, followed by further reductions in uncertainty until the asteroid safely passes Earth.
Source: https://www.planetary.org/articles/should-you-be-worried-about-asteroid-2024-yr4