Astronomers have reassigned asteroid 2024 YR4 to Torino Scale Level Zero, indicating a “no hazard” category due to reduced uncertainty in its orbital path. The asteroid’s impact probability has been lowered to zero, making it unlikely to collide with Earth.
Discovered in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 initially posed a significant threat after rising to the top of NASA’s Sentry Risk table with a 1-in-32 chance of hitting Earth. However, new data collected on February 23 has reduced its possibility of intersecting the planet to below the 1-in-1000 threshold.
According to Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at MIT and creator of the Torino scale, the asteroid’s new classification is in line with the level 3 description, which states that most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0. Attention by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
The asteroid’s size is estimated to be around 164 feet (50 meters), and its impact probability for passing Earth in 2032 has been reduced to 0.00005% or 1-in-20,000. Binzel notes that this aligns with the second part of the Torino scale level 3 description.
Asteroid expert David Rankin anticipates that the asteroid’s impact odds would initially rise before dropping dramatically due to the uncertainty in its orbital path. He explains that the small uncertainties in positional measurements from telescope imaging can lead to dramatic changes in the asteroid’s trajectory over vast distances.
While the general public can breathe a sigh of relief, scientists will still benefit from studying this space rock in detail as it passes Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. Binzel concludes that finding objects like 2024 YR4 and pinning down their orbits makes us more secure in our knowledge about potential asteroid threats.
Source: https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/earth-safe-from-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-thats-impact-probability-zero-folks