NASA has revised its estimate for asteroid 2024 YR4, doubling its initial probability of collision with Earth from 1% to 2.3%. The estimated size of the asteroid ranges from 130 to 300 feet wide. According to Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a 2.3% chance is “uncommon.”
The asteroid currently ranks at a three out of 10 on the Torino scale, which categorizes objects near Earth as either hazardous or not. Since most objects in space rank at zero, this increase in risk raises concerns.
Scientists will study the asteroid using the James Webb Space Telescope to gather more accurate data about its size and potential impact. According to the European Space Agency, an object of similar size collides with Earth approximately every few thousand years, causing significant localized damage.
However, NASA notes that there is no real cause for alarm at present, as many near-Earth objects have been removed from the “risk list” after more data became available. The most recent example is the 2013 Chelyabinsk asteroid, which exploded mid-air and released energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT, injuring over 1,500 people and damaging thousands of buildings.
Source: https://people.com/chances-of-an-asteroid-2024-yr4-hitting-earth-in-2032-has-nearly-doubled-11679831