The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has increased, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). The estimated risk now stands at 1.8%, with NASA’s calculations slightly higher at 1.9%. Despite this, there remains a high likelihood that the asteroid will pass by without posing any threat.
The ESA has announced daily updates on the asteroid, which is currently classified as a Level 3 object on the Turino Impact Hazard Scale. This classification warrants intense observational efforts within the planetary defense community.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is too small to trigger a global catastrophe but could devastate a city if it were to strike a populated area. The impact’s severity depends on several unknown factors, including its composition and entry angle into Earth’s atmosphere.
NASA has released a graphic illustrating the current uncertainty in the asteroid’s trajectory, represented by a triangle. Only 1.6% of the area within this polygon corresponds to a potential impact with Earth.
Two specialized UN groups are currently studying the asteroid’s trajectory: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). These organizations aim to coordinate an international response to potential asteroid threats.
The asteroid is expected to begin fading from view in the coming months, during which time the ESA will coordinate observations with increasingly powerful telescopes. If it disappears from view before its possible impact can be ruled out, the asteroid will likely remain on its risk list until 2028.
Source: https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2025-02-06/space-agencies-raise-risk-of-asteroid-2024-yr4-impacting-earth.html