The European Space Agency (ESA) is closely monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2032. The asteroid’s trajectory makes it difficult to accurately determine its orbit.
Estimated to be between 40 meters and 100 meters wide, 2024 YR4 poses a potential threat to our planet. If an impact were to occur, it could cause severe damage to a local region, with impacts occurring every few thousand years.
As of January 29, 2025, ESA estimates that the probability of impact on December 22, 2032, is 1.2%. However, this result may change as more data becomes available.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list and will continue to be monitored with telescopes around the world. The ESA and UN-endorsed international asteroid response groups are now considering their next steps.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) will convene to discuss strategies for mitigating potential hazards. If the asteroid’s impact probability remains above 1%, SMPAG may provide recommendations to the UN and evaluate options for a spacecraft-based response.
As of now, the asteroid is estimated to be larger than 50 meters in size, making it a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. While the chances of impact are low, continued monitoring and cooperation between governments and space agencies are crucial.
Source: https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/ESA_actively_monitoring_near-Earth_asteroid_2024_YR4