A recent assessment by astronomers has raised the risk level of asteroid 2024 YR4, making it the most likely sizable space rock to impact planet Earth. Currently, the odds of impact in 2032 stand at 3.1 percent. Although smaller than previously feared asteroid Apophis, 2024 YR4 poses a significant threat due to its potential size and composition.
Experts estimate that if 2024 YR4 is stony and on the smaller end of estimates, it could lead to an airburst with high destructive potential, comparable to the Tunguska event in 1908. However, even smaller impacts can cause devastating damage, such as scarring or demolishing a city.
The kinetic energy of an asteroid plays a crucial role in determining its impact’s severity. With a size range of 130-300 feet and uncertain density, the actual destructive potential is difficult to predict. Factors like composition, angle of entry, and mass also contribute significantly to the outcome.
While the risk remains low, experts emphasize that even small increases in asteroid size translate into massive jumps in destructive power. If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth’s surface, it could create a crater approximately two-thirds of a mile across, causing widespread destruction and potentially deadly consequences.
Planetary defenders are taking this asteroid seriously due to the uncertainty surrounding its potential impact outcomes. While the likelihood of an impact in 2032 remains low, ongoing monitoring is essential to refine our understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory and composition.
The estimated mass range of 2024 YR4 makes it essential to consider various scenarios, including airbursts and surface impacts. With precise tracking and expert analysis, astronomers are working to provide a more accurate picture of this asteroid’s potential threat to Earth.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-impact.html