A new asteroid has been discovered with a slim chance of impacting Earth in 2032. The European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office states that asteroid 2024 YR4 will safely pass by our planet on December 22, 2032, with a 99% probability. However, scientists caution that the possibility of impact cannot be entirely ruled out.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40m and 100m wide and was discovered on December 27, 2024, in Chile. Automated warning systems alerted scientists immediately after its discovery, indicating a small chance of hitting Earth. The European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office considers the asteroid a significant threat, stating that an impact could cause severe damage to a local region.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale ranks the asteroid as “Level 3”, indicating a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. However, it’s worth noting that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises before dropping to zero after additional observations.
Monitoring groups, including the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, are keeping track of the asteroid’s trajectory. If a collision was deemed likely, these groups would develop strategies to minimize damage.
The asteroid’s orbit is currently moving away from Earth in a straight line, making it challenging to determine its exact path. Astronomers will continue to observe the asteroid using powerful telescopes until it becomes invisible from view around 2025. However, if the asteroid remains above a 1% impact probability, space agencies may consider a spacecraft-based response.
The European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office is taking this threat seriously, and the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the importance of planetary defense.
Source: https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-science/asteroid-2024-yr4