Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially detected in February 2025, has had its collision risk with the Earth downgraded but now poses a significant threat to our lunar companion. Initially estimated at 3.1% in December 2032, the risk has increased to 4.3%, indicating a potentially large and scientifically interesting impact on the Moon’s surface.
The asteroid, measuring between 53-67 meters (174-220 feet) in size, is comparable to the one that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. Although the impact would not destroy the Moon or alter its orbit, it would be an exciting observation of a large crater formation process.
New observations obtained using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in May 2025 have refined the calculation, pushing the risk to 4.3%. However, this is not the final assessment, as tracing an asteroid’s trajectory requires repeated observations. The next opportunity for closer observation will be in December 2028.
Astronomers are now eagerly anticipating the chance to observe 2024 YR4 closely and gather more precise data on its trajectory. This will provide a unique scientific opportunity to study the asteroid’s behavior and potentially offer breathtaking views of the Moon’s surface.
Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/city-killer-asteroid-even-more-likely-to-hit-the-moon-in-2032