A recent discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 in Chile sparked a brief surge of interest in planetary defense, as estimates initially suggested a 1% chance of collision with Earth by December 2032. However, subsequent observations refined the orbit, dramatically lowering the chances to 0.004%. This incident highlights the need for a coherent planetary defense program, particularly given the increasing number of near-Earth objects (NEOs) being discovered.
The renewed interest in planetary defense comes as NASA spends more on the subject than ever before. However, scientists argue that more funding is needed to address the risks and consequences associated with NEO threats. Jared Isaacman, the likely next administrator at NASA, has expressed support for increasing spending on planetary defense.
The challenge lies in translating this interest into a cohesive program, particularly in an era of short-circuited communication lines and changing norms. Some experts have called for developing missions to deflect asteroids like 2024 YR4, even when the impact risk remains small. However, planetary defense professionals have cautioned against hasty decisions.
As more discoveries are made by future telescopes like the Rubin Observatory’s wide-field telescope and NASA’s NEO Surveyor, the likelihood of similar false alarms increases. The search for a credible asteroid with a non-zero chance of impact is underway, and the stakes will remain high as the threat from near-Earth objects continues to grow.
Source: https://spacenews.com/planetary-defense-may-get-a-boost-from-jared-isaacman