A recent article on a popular technology website incorrectly suggested that a large asteroid, 2024 YR4, had a high chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. According to NASA, the odds of this impact have dropped dramatically to just 0.0039 percent, equivalent to 1 in 26,000.
The reduction in odds is due to improved observations from ground-based telescopes as the asteroid moved away from Earth. While this news may seem like a relief, it’s essential to note that there are still many asteroids of similar size in the inner Solar System. These city-killer asteroids could cause regional destruction but are difficult to detect.
Astronomers expect to find more of these asteroids in the coming years as they gain improved detection capabilities. According to Richard Binzel, a leading asteroid expert, “An object the size of YR4 passes harmlessly through the Earth-Moon neighborhood as frequently as a few times per year.” This highlights the importance of continued monitoring and research into near-Earth asteroids to better prepare for potential threats.
While the odds of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth have decreased, it’s crucial to remember that there are still many pressing existential risks to address on our planet. The discovery of more asteroids like 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the need for continued investment in asteroid detection and research.
Source: https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/asteroid-2024-yr4-may-be-a-dud-but-we-will-soon-find-many-more-threats