Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially thought to have a high impact probability, has had its risk significantly reduced after rapid observations and advanced tracking techniques ruled out most potential collision courses.
The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. It is expected to pass close to Earth on December 22, 2032, but with an updated risk assessment of just 0.001%, scientists have breathed a sigh of relief.
Recent telescopic observations have provided more precise data, lowering the risk to nearly zero. The European Space Agency (ESA) has reduced the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032, bringing it down to just 0.001%.
The asteroid is large enough to cause significant local damage if it were to collide with Earth, measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. However, its detection drew attention from the global planetary defense community, prompting coordinated international tracking and assessment efforts.
The risk of impact has followed a well-understood pattern, where an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before rapidly dropping to zero as the uncertainty region representing all possible orbits shrinks away from Earth.
While 2024 YR4 no longer poses a risk, its close approach in 2032 remains a valuable opportunity for future asteroid-tracking technology. Planned observations of the asteroid using the James Webb Space Telescope will go ahead in the coming months to test the telescope’s ability to improve our estimate of the asteroid’s size.
Source: https://scitechdaily.com/from-danger-to-dismissed-how-scientists-ruled-out-this-asteroid-threat