NASA has significantly reduced the threat of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth by lowering its impact risk from 1 in 67 to 1 in 360. According to NASA, the asteroid now has a 99.72% chance of missing our planet in 2032.
The updated assessment is based on new orbital data collected between February 18 and 20. The asteroid, estimated to be around 180 feet wide, was previously considered one of the most risky asteroids due to its initial probability of impact being raised to 1 in 32 or 3.1%.
However, with a revised risk level of just 1 in 360, the Torino scale now indicates that the “chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or concern.” Richard Binzel, creator of the Torino scale, noted that further telescopic observations are likely to lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
While asteroid 2024 YR4’s risk level has decreased significantly, it still remains at the top of NASA’s Sentry table. The next riskiest asteroid on the list is 1950 DA with a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880.
It’s worth noting that even if 2024 YR4 misses Earth, there is still a small chance, about 1%, it could strike the moon. However, this outcome is considered highly unlikely.
The asteroid is currently heading away from Earth but will swing back towards our planet in 2028, becoming visible to ground-based telescopes again. The scientific value of observing an asteroid up close cannot be overstated, making 2024 YR4 a significant object for study.
Stay tuned for further updates on asteroid 2024 YR4 as more information becomes available.
Source: https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024yt4-impact-risk-drop-nasa