NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has collected more data on asteroid 2024 YR4, which is currently too far away to be detected with telescopes from Earth. The additional observations have improved the asteroid’s orbit and increased its chances of impacting the Moon by nearly 20%. As a result, the probability of impact has risen from 3.8% to 4.3%.
The asteroid’s orbit was further refined using data from the Webb telescope in May, when an international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin made observations using the Near-Infrared Camera. The team’s findings suggest that if the asteroid were to impact, it would not significantly alter the Moon’s orbit.
Contrary to initial predictions, NASA has concluded that the asteroid poses no significant risk of impacting Earth in 2032 and beyond. However, as more data becomes available, the likelihood of impact can change.
The asteroid is now too far away to be observed with telescopes, but NASA expects to make further observations when it returns to its current orbit around the Sun in 2028.
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/06/05/nasas-webb-observations-update-asteroid-2024-yr4s-lunar-impact-odds