Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially discovered with a low probability of colliding with Earth in 2032, now poses a higher threat to the Moon. According to recent calculations, the asteroid has a nearly 4% chance of striking the lunar surface in December 2032. While this is slightly lower than its Earth impact risk, experts emphasize that an asteroid of this size defying the odds cannot be ruled out.
The European Space Agency’s latest update reveals that astronomers will need to wait until mid-2028 for further observations as the asteroid’s orbit sends it around the sun. The implications of a potential lunar collision are uncertain, with experts admitting they cannot accurately predict the effects on the Moon’s surface and atmosphere.
However, NASA and other space agencies worldwide are improving early detection capabilities and planning for worst-case scenarios. One such initiative is the Near-Earth Object Mission in Infrared (NEOMIR) satellite set to launch in the 2030s. This mission aims to detect unknown asteroids larger than 197 feet wide that may be on a collision course with Earth, providing governments and agencies with more time to identify and plan for space emergencies.
The NEOMIR satellite would have detected asteroid 2024 YR4 about a month earlier than ground-based telescopes did, giving astronomers more time to study its trajectory and rule out the risk of an Earth impact. Experts remain vigilant, emphasizing that international cooperation is crucial in addressing this growing threat to our planet’s safety.
Source: https://www.popsci.com/science/asteroid-moon-strike