NASA has increased the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon in 2032. The asteroid, initially considered a high-risk threat to Earth, now poses a slightly higher chance of impacting the lunar surface due to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope. According to NASA, the revised trajectory indicates a probability of 4.3% for a lunar impact on December 22, 2024.
Although the moon’s orbit would not be affected by an asteroid collision, scientists have deemed it safe from potential damage. The risk level is still low, and any debris resulting from the impact would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere before reaching space.
Estimated to be around 53-67 meters long, or about the size of a 10-story building, 2024 YR4 has garnered significant attention due to its high impact risk. However, the asteroid’s trajectory has shifted significantly over time, dropping from a peak of 3.1% in February to just 0.004% last year.
Scientists have used data from the JWST and ground-based telescopes to better understand the asteroid’s origin and behavior. The space rock is believed to have originated in the central main belt between Mars and Jupiter before shifting into a near-Earth orbit.
As the asteroid will not be visible from Earth until 2028, scientists will use this opportunity to gather more data on its shape and composition to refine its orbit using both JWST and ground-based telescopes.
Source: https://www.space.com/astronomy/asteroids/nasa-raises-the-odds-that-an-asteroid-could-hit-the-moon-in-2032