A recent analysis by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in December 2032 to 4.3%. Despite this, there is still a high probability that it will pass by the Earth, with odds of 95% or more. The asteroid was initially considered a threat to Earth but was downgraded after new observations were conducted.
The asteroid’s orbit has been refined using JWST data and expert analysis from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. This has led to an increase in the chances of a Moon impact, up from 1.7% in February. However, if it does collide with the Moon, it is unlikely to alter its orbit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately 200 feet wide and was discovered on December 27, 2023, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. Its path has led to increased international attention, with many astronomers closely monitoring its progress.
Source: https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/odds-asteroid-2024yr4-hitting-moon-up