NASA has announced that the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon in 2032 have increased slightly, from 3.8% to 4.3%. The asteroid was initially discovered in December 2024 and had been deemed a potentially hazardous object by NASA. However, after scientists gathered more data using the James Webb Space Telescope, they refined the asteroid’s orbit, leading to the slight increase in the odds of impact.
Initially, 2024 YR4 was predicted to pose no threat to Earth, but its new path now brings it closer to the Moon. The asteroid is relatively small, approximately 174-220 feet wide, and would likely result in nothing more than a new crater if it were to collide with the lunar surface.
While the impact on the Moon would not alter its orbit, scientists believe that anticipating this event could provide valuable insights into crater formation and planetary defense strategies. NASA plans to observe 2024 YR4 again when it swings back towards Earth in 2028, gathering more information about the asteroid’s shape and composition to better understand its behavior.
The increase in impact odds highlights the importance of ongoing monitoring and tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids like 2024 YR4. As one space traveler comes to an end, scientists look forward to learning more about this asteroid’s path and preparing for potential future encounters.
Source: https://gizmodo.com/nasa-raises-odds-of-asteroid-smacking-the-moon-in-2032-2000613835