NASA has updated its assessment of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, ruling out a significant impact risk to Earth but leaving a small chance it could collide with the Moon. The size estimate for 2024 YR4 has been revised from 131-295 feet (40-90 meters) based on visible light measurements to 174-220 feet (53-67 meters), comparable to a 10-story building.
New infrared observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have reduced uncertainty and changed the predicted impact probability on December 22, 2032, from 1.7% to 3.8%. However, there remains a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon.
If an impact were to occur, it would not significantly affect the Moon’s orbit. The asteroid will become too faint and distant for ground-based telescopes after mid-April but will be observed again by Webb in May.
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4