A team of University of Hawaii astronomers has provided updated information on the asteroid 2024 YR4, initially flagged as a potential threat to Earth. The latest calculations indicate that the probability of impact has decreased significantly, from 3% in December to 0.28% as of February 19.
The discovery was made using telescopes at Maunakea Observatory, where the asteroid was spotted in December as a “city killer” sized object. Astronomers closely monitored its trajectory and calculated its chances of collision with Earth.
According to UH astronomy professor David Tholen, the increasing distance between the asteroid and Earth will cause it to fade from view for telescopes on our planet by April 2025. The next opportunity for monitoring will be in 2028.
While the impact risk is low, astronomers remain vigilant due to the potential consequences of an asteroid entering the atmosphere over a populated area. Even if only a small portion of the asteroid were to disintegrate, it could generate enough force to break windows or cause minor structural damage across a city.
Source: https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/02/21/hawaii-astronomers-announce-asteroid-impact-probability-updates