A recent study published in the journal Science Advances has revealed a shocking scenario of how climate and life on Earth would change in response to a potential future strike of a medium-sized asteroid. Researchers from the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea simulated an idealized collision scenario with a 500-meter asteroid using a state-of-the-art climate model.
The simulation showed that a massive injection of dust into the upper atmosphere could lead to dramatic disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry, and global photosynthesis. The most intense scenario would cause global surface cooling of up to 4˚C, reduced rainfall by 15%, and severe ozone depletion of about 32%. These impacts would be particularly pronounced regionally.
The researchers also found that plankton growth displayed a surprising behavior in response to the asteroid impact. Instead of a rapid reduction and slow recovery, plankton in the ocean would have already recovered within six months and even increased afterwards, with levels not seen under normal climate conditions. This unexpected response was linked to an increase in bioavailable iron, which triggers unprecedented algae blooms.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Lan Dai, warned that the “impact winter” could provide unfavorable climate conditions for plants to grow, leading to massive disruptions in global food security. However, the researchers also suggested that the post-collision increase in marine productivity could be beneficial for the biosphere and alleviate emerging food insecurity.
The study highlights the importance of considering potential impacts from near-Earth orbit objects on our planet’s climate system. With medium-sized asteroids colliding with Earth about every 100-200 thousand years, early human ancestors may have experienced similar events that had a significant impact on their evolution and genetic makeup. The ICCP researchers plan to study early human responses to such events in more detail using agent-based computer models.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2025-02-asteroid-impact-simulation-reveals-climate.html