Asteroid 2024 YR4, currently estimated to be 196-foot-wide, has seen its odds of impacting Earth in 2032 increase to 1 in 43. However, experts warn that there’s no need to panic. The chances of the asteroid missing Earth remain at 97.7%.
According to David Rankin, an expert who first discovered the asteroid, the increasing odds are part of a natural process as scientists gather more data on its orbit. The initial estimate of 1 in 83 was equivalent to a 1.2% chance of impact, which meant there was a 98.8% chance it would pass by Earth.
Rankin explains that the uncertainty surrounding asteroid orbits comes from small timing errors and positional errors in measuring their positions from telescopes. This results in an initial distribution of possible orbits, with the center of that distribution passing close to Earth. As more data is collected, the uncertainty decreases, but not necessarily for every individual path – only when the entire dataset can be used.
Rankin suggests that asteroid 2024 YR4 will continue to be tracked throughout February 2025 using 8-meter telescopes at the Catalina Sky Survey. By examining archival data from 2016 and further observations in 2028, scientists hope to determine with greater certainty whether the asteroid will hit or miss Earth.
The chances of diverting the asteroid, if it’s deemed a threat, are also being explored. However, it would require significant funding to prepare and launch a mission by 2028.
Source: https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024yr4-odds-increase-no-concern